Feature
Post Budget, Pulwama airstrikes BJP-led NDA made gains in LS polls says opinion polls
New Delhi: Even as the slugfest between the BJP and opposition parties continues over alleged politicisation of the post-Pulwama airstrikes in Pakistans Balakot, opinion polls show that the BJP-led NDA has made substantial gains in terms of number of seats it may win if Lok Sabha elections are held now.
Polls also show that while the National Democratic Alliance (NDA)’s seat projections were on a decline since the beginning of 2018 (when it was 322) and slipped to 237 in January this year, its fortunes reversed after the government’s announcement of 10 per cent quota for economically backward sections among the forward castes and the Budget in which it announced a slew of measures for farmers, unorganised labourers and the middle class.
While not all opinion surveys are conducted consistently every month, an average of such polls indicates that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led front managed a gain of 18 seats post-Pulwama strikes in March, taking its projected figure to 274 seats against 256 in February.
The complication with this comparison is that while the data for five surveys was available for March, it was available for only two polls in February.
If one takes only the Times Now-VMR opinion poll (the only poll for which data was available for all three months of this year), the NDA, which was projected to win 252 seats in January, gained 18 seats and took its projected tally to 270.
This was the time when the government announced 10 per cent EWS quota in mid-January, followed by tax relief for the middle class by making income (after deductions) up to Rs 5 lakh effectively tax-free. It also announced an annual direct income support of Rs 6,000 for small and marginal farmers.
NDA-led BJP made gains in opinion polls after Budget, Pulwama airstrikes if wins LS polls:
In the March poll, the first after the post-Pulwama airstrikes in Pakistan, the survey gave the NDA 283 seats, taking it across the 272-seat threshold.
The seven-phased Lok Sabha polls are scheduled from April 11 to May 19, and vote count will take place on May 23.
The ABP-Cvoter survey also gave substantial gains to the NDA government after the three major events (EWS quota, Budget and airstrikes), taking its tally from 233 in January to 264 in March, just short of the 272-mark. The poll was not conducted in February.
Somewhat similar trend could be seen in the India TV-CNX poll as well, which was conducted in March 2019 and December 2018. As per the poll, the NDA marginally improved its figure from 281 seats to 285 seats.
While the India Today-Karvy poll also reflected the declining trend of projected seats for the BJP from 281 in August last year to 237 in January this year, the result of their poll post the airstrikes is still not available.
However, irrespective of which opinion poll one considers, the undisputed trend remains that the BJP-led front has successfully turned the tide in its favour over the last two-three months by shifting the rhetoric to national security and by taking measures such as the EWS quota, tax benefits for the middle class and income support for farmers.
The State Scores Extra High on Gaming-Friendly Industry Index
Meghalaya scored 92.85 out of 100 possible points in a Gaming Industry Index and proved to be India’s most gaming-friendly state following its recent profound legislation changes over the field allowing land-based and online gaming, including games of chance, under a licensing regime.
The index by the UK India Business Council (UKIBC) uses a scale of 0 to 100 to measure the level of legalisation on gambling and betting achieved by a state based on the scores over a set of seven different games – lottery, horse racing, betting on sports, poker, rummy, casino and fantasy sports
Starting from February last year, Meghalaya became the third state in India’s northeast to legalise gambling and betting after Sikkim and Nagaland. After consultations with the UKIBC, the state proceeded with the adoption of the Meghalaya Regulation of Gaming Act, 2021 and the nullification of the Meghalaya Prevention of Gambling Act, 1970. Subsequently in December, the Meghalaya Regulation of Gaming Rules, 2021 were notified and came into force.
All for the Tourists
The move to legalise and license various forms of offline and online betting and gambling in Meghalaya is aimed at boosting tourism and creating jobs, and altogether raising taxation revenues for the northeastern state. At the same time, the opportunities to bet and gamble legally will be reserved only for tourists and visitors.
“We came out with a Gaming Act and subsequently framed the Regulation of Gaming Rules, 2021. The government will accordingly issue licenses to operate games of skill and chance, both online and offline,” said James P. K. Sangma, Meghalaya State Law and Taxation Minister speaking in the capital city of Shillong. “But the legalized gambling and gaming will only be for tourists and not residents of Meghalaya,” he continued.
To be allowed to play, tourists and people visiting the state for work or business purposes will have to prove their non-resident status by presenting appropriate documents, in a process similar to a bank KYC (Know Your Customer) procedure.
Meghalaya Reaches Out to a Vast Market
With 140 millions of people in India estimated to bet regularly on sports, and a total of 370 million desi bettors around prominent sporting events, as per data from one of the latest reports by Esse N Videri, Meghalaya is set to reach out and take a piece of a vast market.
Estimates on the financial value of India’s sports betting market, combined across all types of offline channels and online sports and cricket predictions and betting platforms, speak about amounts between $130 and $150 billion (roughly between ₹9.7 and ₹11.5 lakh crore).
Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Delhi are shown to deliver the highest number of bettors and Meghalaya can count on substantial tourists flow from their betting circles. The sports betting communities of Karnataka, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana are also not to be underestimated.
Among the sports, cricket is most popular, registering 68 percent of the total bet count analyzed by Esse N Videri. Football takes second position with 11 percent of the bets, followed by betting on FIFA at 7 percent and on eCricket at 5 percent. The last position in the Top 5 of popular sports for betting in India is taken by tennis with 3 percent of the bet count.
Local Citizens will Still have Their Teer Betting
Meghalaya residents will still be permitted to participate in teer betting over arrow-shooting results. Teer is a traditional method of gambling, somewhat similar to a lottery draw, and held under the rules of the Meghalaya Regulation of the Game of Arrow Shooting and the Sale of Teer Tickets Act, 2018.
Teer includes bettors wagering on the number of arrows that reach the target which is placed about 50 meters away from a team of 20 archers positioned in a semicircle.
The archers shoot volleys of arrows at the target for ten minutes, and players place their bets choosing a number between 0 and 99 trying to guess the last two digits of the number of arrows that successfully pierce the target.
If, for example, the number of hits is 256, anyone who has bet on 56 wins an amount eight times bigger than their wager.
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