The second wave of Covid-19 pandemic in India is likely to decline by July this year while the third wave is expected to hit the country in about six to eight months, India Today quoted projections by the three-member panel of scientists set up by the Department of Science and Technology under the Science Ministry of the Government of India.

Speaking on the third wave, Professor Manindra Agarwal from IIT Kanpur, told the news channel said that phase 3 of the pandemic will be localised and won’t affect many people due to immunity from vaccination.

The scientists have further predicted that by the end of May, India is expected to report about 1.5 lakh cases daily, and by the end of July, cases will go down to 20,000/per day, the report mentioned. The predictions are based on SUTRA (Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive) and Removed Approach) model, a mathematical model that helps to project the trajectory of COVID-19.

On Thursday, M Vidyasagar, a scientist involved in the Sutra Model, said that if the vaccination drive against coronavirus is not ramped up and COVID-19 appropriate behaviour is not maintained, there is a possibility of a third wave of the pandemic in 6-8 months. He, however, stressed the Sutra model has not predicted any third wave and it is working on it.

K VijayRaghavan, Principal Scientific Adviser, had said on May 5 that as the virus mutates further, a third wave of COVID infection is inevitable and it is necessary to be prepared for new waves. Two days later he said there may not be a third wave of coronavirus in the country, if strong measures are taken and effectively implemented at the state, district and city level.