Connect with us

Corona

Third wave of Covid-19 will not be as severe as second wave: ICMR Study

Published

3 years ago

on

A study has indicated that a third Covid-19 wave, if it develops, will be “unlikely” to be as severe as the second wave, despite concerns about the severity of the second wave.

The study, titled “Plausibility of a third wave of Covid-19 in India: A mathematical modeling-based analysis,” was co-authored by a team from the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), including its Director General Dr Balram Bhargava, Sandip Mandal, and Samiran Panda, as well as Nimalan Arinaminpathy from Imperial College London’s Department of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology.

The study, which was published in the Indian Journal of Medical Research (IJMR), shows a vaccination ramp-up scenario in which 40% of the population had gotten two Covid-19 vaccine doses within three months of the second wave’s peak. Using the assumption that vaccination reduces infection severity by 60%, the paper claims that this model indicates how vaccination might significantly lower the burden during a probable third wave.

“Any third wave seems unlikely to be as severe as the second wave. Rapid scale-up of vaccination efforts could play an important role in mitigating these and future waves of the disease,” the authors said.

Indian scientist identified Delta variant put it onto global database: Ministry of Science & Technology
A compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission was utilised to investigate four potential mechanisms for a hypothetical third wave. Waning immunity restores previously exposed individuals to a vulnerable state; emergence of a new viral variant capable of escaping immunity to previously circulating strains; emergence of a new viral variant more transmissible than previously circulating strains; and release of current lockdowns, resulting in new opportunities for disease transmission.
The second Covid-19 wave in India peaked in April and May. During this time, the country had more daily cases and deaths than any other country since the pandemic began early last year. The wave has diminished since then, while daily infections have remained near or above 50,000, and new fatalities have remained above 1,000.
Related Topics:
Continue Reading

Corona

Covid toll in Karnataka is a worrying sign for state government

Published

3 years ago

on

May 4, 2022

By

 

Even though Karnataka recorded the lowest number of Covid deaths in April since the virus struck first in 2020, the state is recording a rise in the positivity rate (1.50 per cent). Five people died from the Covid infections in April as per the statistics released by the state health department. In March, the positivity rate stood around 0.53 per cent. In the first week of April it came down to 0.38 per cent, second week registered 0.56 per cent, third week it rose to 0.79 per cent and by end of April the Covid positivity rate touched 1.19 per cent.

on an average 500 persons used to succumb everyday in the peak of Covid infection, as per the data. Health experts said that the mutated Coronavirus is losing its fierce characteristics as vaccination, better treatment facilities and awareness among the people have contributed to the lesser number of Covid deaths.

During the 4th and 6th of April two deaths were reported in Bengaluru, one in Gadag district on April 8, two deaths were reported from Belagavi and Vijayapura on April 30. The first Covid case was reported in the state in March 2020 and three Covid deaths were recorded in the month. In the following month 21 people became victims to the deadly virus, and May 2020 recorded 22 deaths. The death toll recorded everyday after May crossed three digits. However, the third wave, which started in January 2

Continue Reading

Trending