Feature
RBI likely to hold rates on Tuesday
New Delhi: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to hold interest rates at its monetary policy review on Tuesday and is more likely to cut rates by the end of the year when there is more clarity on the monsoons.
According to the Export-Import Bank of India, the rising trend in inflation seen over the last two months and the rainfall deficits are expected to weigh over the considerations of weak economic performance.
“Consequently, policy rate cut by the RBI in its third bi-monthly policy appears bleak. The RBI is likely to maintain status quo on rates in its bi-monthly policy meet on August 4,” it said.
Consumer price-indexed (CPI), or retail, inflation rose to an eight-month high of 5.4 percent in June riding on costlier food, fuel, housing, clothing and footwear.
While the CPI-urban for June inched higher to 4.55 percent, the CPI-rural jumped to 6.07 percent from 5.52 percent in May.
At its last review in June, RBI cut the repo rate, at which it lends short-term to commercial banks, from 7.5 percent to 7.25, but left other parameters like the cash reserve ratio (CRR) and statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) unchanged at 4 percent and 21.5 percent, respectively.
It was the third repo cut this year in June, while the central bank had indicated that there may not be any further cuts in the near term.
Giving the reasons for the June policy stance, RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan said plans for lower food output needed to be in place, global financial markets were volatile, factory output was recovering unevenly, services sector was emitting mixed signals, fuel inflation was up, exports were down and liquidity had improved.
According to India Ratings and Research, the RBI is likely to wait and watch on rates on Tuesday.
“Ind-Ra expects the policy stance to reflect RBI’s continued intention to anchor both inflation and inflationary expectations. This has become even more important for RBI after its agreement with the government to follow a framework of inflation targeting,” it said.
Meanwhile, American research firm Moody’s Analytics, in a report this week, warned against the NDA government’s moves to tamper with the autonomy of the Reserve Bank of India in deciding on interest rates as potentially damaging for the economy.
“We believe that a government-elected panel undermines the RBI’s independence. Moving to the new model would severely dent the RBI’s competency: Credibility would be lower, politics would drive decisions, and transparency would be reduced,” the economic research company said.
The government last week released the draft Indian Financial Code, which proposes to remove the RBI governor’s veto right in the monetary policy committee.
Besides taking away the RBI governor’s authority to veto interest rate decisions, the draft also proposed that the monetary policy committee would have four representatives of the government and only three from the central bank, including the RBI “chairperson”.
“Overall, we believe that tampering with the central bank’s independence would make it difficult to anchor inflation expectations. This would weigh on India’s economic prospects, particularly financial market stability,” said the Moody’s report.
“But given the criticism of the draft bill, it is unlikely to pass parliament,” it added.
Terming the measure as a “dangerous road ahead”, it said India’s monetary policy, with Governor Raghuram Rajan at the helm, has been effective.
The State Scores Extra High on Gaming-Friendly Industry Index
Meghalaya scored 92.85 out of 100 possible points in a Gaming Industry Index and proved to be India’s most gaming-friendly state following its recent profound legislation changes over the field allowing land-based and online gaming, including games of chance, under a licensing regime.
The index by the UK India Business Council (UKIBC) uses a scale of 0 to 100 to measure the level of legalisation on gambling and betting achieved by a state based on the scores over a set of seven different games – lottery, horse racing, betting on sports, poker, rummy, casino and fantasy sports
Starting from February last year, Meghalaya became the third state in India’s northeast to legalise gambling and betting after Sikkim and Nagaland. After consultations with the UKIBC, the state proceeded with the adoption of the Meghalaya Regulation of Gaming Act, 2021 and the nullification of the Meghalaya Prevention of Gambling Act, 1970. Subsequently in December, the Meghalaya Regulation of Gaming Rules, 2021 were notified and came into force.
All for the Tourists
The move to legalise and license various forms of offline and online betting and gambling in Meghalaya is aimed at boosting tourism and creating jobs, and altogether raising taxation revenues for the northeastern state. At the same time, the opportunities to bet and gamble legally will be reserved only for tourists and visitors.
“We came out with a Gaming Act and subsequently framed the Regulation of Gaming Rules, 2021. The government will accordingly issue licenses to operate games of skill and chance, both online and offline,” said James P. K. Sangma, Meghalaya State Law and Taxation Minister speaking in the capital city of Shillong. “But the legalized gambling and gaming will only be for tourists and not residents of Meghalaya,” he continued.
To be allowed to play, tourists and people visiting the state for work or business purposes will have to prove their non-resident status by presenting appropriate documents, in a process similar to a bank KYC (Know Your Customer) procedure.
Meghalaya Reaches Out to a Vast Market
With 140 millions of people in India estimated to bet regularly on sports, and a total of 370 million desi bettors around prominent sporting events, as per data from one of the latest reports by Esse N Videri, Meghalaya is set to reach out and take a piece of a vast market.
Estimates on the financial value of India’s sports betting market, combined across all types of offline channels and online sports and cricket predictions and betting platforms, speak about amounts between $130 and $150 billion (roughly between ₹9.7 and ₹11.5 lakh crore).
Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Delhi are shown to deliver the highest number of bettors and Meghalaya can count on substantial tourists flow from their betting circles. The sports betting communities of Karnataka, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana are also not to be underestimated.
Among the sports, cricket is most popular, registering 68 percent of the total bet count analyzed by Esse N Videri. Football takes second position with 11 percent of the bets, followed by betting on FIFA at 7 percent and on eCricket at 5 percent. The last position in the Top 5 of popular sports for betting in India is taken by tennis with 3 percent of the bet count.
Local Citizens will Still have Their Teer Betting
Meghalaya residents will still be permitted to participate in teer betting over arrow-shooting results. Teer is a traditional method of gambling, somewhat similar to a lottery draw, and held under the rules of the Meghalaya Regulation of the Game of Arrow Shooting and the Sale of Teer Tickets Act, 2018.
Teer includes bettors wagering on the number of arrows that reach the target which is placed about 50 meters away from a team of 20 archers positioned in a semicircle.
The archers shoot volleys of arrows at the target for ten minutes, and players place their bets choosing a number between 0 and 99 trying to guess the last two digits of the number of arrows that successfully pierce the target.
If, for example, the number of hits is 256, anyone who has bet on 56 wins an amount eight times bigger than their wager.
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