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Monsoon: Predicting an unpredictable climate system
As news both good and bad pours from across India, the monsoon is once again in the limelight. From farmers, scientists and economists to astrologers, the monsoon has a significance unlike any other climate phenomenon in India.
The monsoon provides around 80 per cent of the total rainfall in India. Getting monsoon predictions right occupies much attention of the weather department in India so that governments can make adjustments to their policies and prepare for droughts or floods according to the likely rainfall pattern.
However, the Asian monsoon, unlike its counterparts in West Africa and Australia, has been characterised by remarkable unpredictability and seasonal changes in wind direction and quantity and location of rain. Climate change due to global warming has added yet another dimension of unreliability to the monsoon. Understanding the timing, duration and intensity of the monsoon is vital if predictions of drought and flood are to be made.
Any marginal change, say a 5 to 10 per cent, in the total rainfall may appear to be small but these apparently small variations in the Indian monsoon can influence agricultural production and the stocks and commodities market in a big way. The variability of rainfall on shorter time scales has the biggest impacts.
For instance, intense heavy rainfall leads to flooding while the breaks in monsoon for over a week or more lead to water shortage and agricultural drought. Evenly distributed rainfall over the four monsoon months could be referred to as the best monsoon.
The variations in seasonal rainfall are often related to weather in other parts of the world, such as El Niño events in the Pacific Ocean. Simulations of future climate generally suggest an increase in monsoon rainfall on a seasonal mean, area-average basis.
This is due to the twin drivers of an increasing land-sea thermal contrast, but more importantly due to warming over the Indian Ocean which allows more moisture to be carried to India. Typically, increases in the total rainfall over India may be in the range of 5-10 per cent, although some climate models suggest more and some less.
The current climate models suggest greater variability in monsoon rainfall from year to year in a warmer world. In the future, it is expected that there will be extreme weather events with excessive rainfall in some years with low to very low rainfall in other years.
Most importantly, the regions that earlier experienced sufficient rainfall could face droughts while those that experienced lower rainfall could face floods frequently. The Indian summer climate in the coming century looks to be wetter on average, together with flood and drought conditions occurring more often.
It is important to build better capability to simulate the day-to-day and intra-seasonal variability of monsoon in climate models with more confidence in projections. In the future, increasing population along with various developmental priorities will bring additional stresses on society and the environment, with serious implications for water resources, health and food security.
Thus, the possibility that the monsoon may become less stable as a result of climate change has serious consequences for India.
There is an urgent need to improve the science of monsoon predictions and its applications. Such measures will help millions to adapt to emerging scenarios and tide over the predicaments of climate change. Using state-of-the art climate models and observations, researchers are investigating the processes that control the monsoon rain and its variability and it is hoped that accurate scientific predictions about the unpredictable monsoon will be possible in the near future.
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Dr. Abhishek Verma Dedicates a Shelter in Memory of His Mother, Veena Verma, at KGMU; Inaugurated by Daughter Nicolle Verma
World-renowned business tycoon Dr. Abhishek Verma has supported Foodman Vishal Singh’s Hunger-Free World mission. In memory of his mother, Late Veena Verma, who was a 3 term Rajya Sabha MP.
Dr. Verma dedicated a state-of-the-art free permanent shelter for the attendants of patients at KGMU Medical University, Lucknow, under the aegis of Vijay Shree Foundation. His daughter, Nicolle Verma, inaugurated the shelter.
During the event, Foodman Vishal Singh honored Nicolle Verma by presenting her with a memento. Mrs. Nidhi Sharma and Avantika Yadav, associated with the organization, welcomed her with garlands. Following this, Nicolle Verma distributed essential items to the attendants and also handed out fruits. She became emotional remembering her grandmother on her birth anniversary.
On this occasion, she also inaugurated the “Veena Verma Sevalaya” in memory of her grandmother, Veena Verma, to serve the attendants. She expressed, “I feel proud that my family is engaged in nation-building as well as social service. Today, in collaboration with Vijay Shree Foundation founder Foodman Vishal Singh Ji, I feel immensely proud to dedicate this shelter for the poor, helpless, and needy attendants of patients battling serious illnesses like cancer. I am honored to be associated with the Hunger-Free World Mission for humanity.”
Inspired by the continuous humanitarian service provided by Vijay Shree Foundation over the past 17 years, Nicolle Verma donated 10 lakh rupees to support the cause. The purpose of this donation is to ensure that services continue for the needy attendants of patients suffering from severe illnesses in hospitals, as facilitated by Foodman Vishal Singh.
It is noteworthy that Dr. Abhishek Verma’s family has a legacy of public and philanthropic service. They are helping millions to carry forward the values and service work of their parents. On the occasion of his mother’s birth anniversary, Dr. Abhishek Verma dedicated this state-of-the-art permanent shelter at Lucknow Medical College to serve the attendants of patients through the Vijay Shree Foundation.
Supporting Foodman Vishal Singh’s Hunger-Free World mission, Dr. Abhishek Verma assured that he would continually support keeping this flame of humanity alive. He also promised to assist in providing medicines to the helpless patients.
Continuing her grandmother’s legacy of service, Nicolle Verma personally served food to the needy patients and attendants. She said, “It is our good fortune to have received the joy of doing this noble work today through Foodman Vishal Singh. I have taken another step forward in carrying my family’s values and cooperation by joining hands with the Vijay Shree Foundation. My father taught me to serve and help the needy, and I feel happy when I bring a smile to someone’s face.”
On the birth anniversary of the late Veena Verma, the event organizer, Vijay Shree Foundation founder Foodman Vishal Singh, said, “We feel proud and happy that Dr. Abhishek Verma, a globally renowned business tycoon, has extended his support to uplift our country from the hunger index. Today, on his mother’s birth anniversary, he inaugurated a state-of-the-art permanent shelter at Lucknow Medical College, which will always be helpful for the needy attendants of patients. It is a pleasure for me and the organization to receive the affection of Mr. Verma.”
The event was attended by General Manager Verma Family Office Hemant Garg, Sonu Rajput, and the organization’s volunteers, including Sandeep Singh, Parmeshwar Ji, Prashant Rao Gautam, Balram Singh, Ramesh Chaudhary, Suman, Jeetu, Anil, Suraj, Vinay, Manish Bhadauria, Manas Mehrotra, Vivek, Apurv, Happy, and others.