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SBI says aberrations in NSSO rural data collection methodology
Mumbai, Jan 21 (IANS) State Bank of India (SBI), in its latest report, says that there are aberrations in NSSO new rural data collection methodology which are likely to obfuscate India’s monetary, fiscal policy choices.
With the clamour for a rate cut getting louder, this data may muddy waters.
“Now because NSSO (National Sample Survey Organisation) is collecting data itself, it is possible that there may be absence of self validation, thereby leading to data discrepancies. We are now concerned that this data aberration could obfuscate policy choices,” said Soumyakanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser at SBI.
SBI believes that policy choices, both fiscal and monetary, must be informed by methodologically consistent inflation data along with a stance change in February policy. However, a rate cut in April is likely if the RBI decides to look through the data.
In December, headline inflation slumped to 2.2 per cent, with rural CPI falling to 1.65 per cent while core rural CPI jumped 6.35 per cent and urban CPI eased 5.26 per cent. However, the whopping 10.14 per cent jump in rural health inflation in December 2018 vis-a-vis 4.93 per cent in December 2017 discouraged market makers.
Meanwhile, the urban areas witnessed a fall in health inflation.
“We understand there is a change in methodology in terms of data collection in rural areas where, as against the earlier practice of collecting data through Post Offices, the NSSO is now collecting data itself. There are about 100 Regional Offices of NSSO, which collect the data,” said SBI in a note.
“The data collection process, hitherto, restricted to urban centres, has now been extended w.e.f September 2018 to rural centres also. We believe, this additional work with the same set-up would take some time to stabilize and this may be one of the reasons for the observed aberrations in the data.
“Also, the earlier rural data collected by post offices used to be validated. Now because NSSO is collecting data itself, it is possible that there may be absence of self validation, thereby leading to data discrepancies,” SBI added.
SBI believes there is a clear-cut case of data aberration in CPI-Rural (Heal and Education Category) in the December 2018 month data release.
The CPI rural health (m-o-m change), which had never breached its maximum mark of 1.37 per cenrt in the past 90 months (April 2011 to September 2018) and a sequential average of 0.5 per cent, suddenly jumped to 3.43 per cent in October 2018 and 3.09 per cent in December 2018.
“Even the October and December numbers were way above the average 3 plus standard deviation, indicating an occurrence probability of once in 333 months (27.7 years)! Similarly, rural CPI education, which grew by 3.26 per cent in December 2018, was also much more than the average 3 plus standard deviation of past 90 months. If we analyse the urban CPI (m-o-m change) for same category for the same period there was no such anomaly,” said Ghosh in a report.
The sudden jump in prices of medicine, hospital and nursing home charges, other medical expenses, in one month (October 2018), then declining to trend growth in next month and again jumping in the next month (December) was one of the reasons for calling the CPI Rural Health data as aberration.
–IANS
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Dr. Abhishek Verma Dedicates a Shelter in Memory of His Mother, Veena Verma, at KGMU; Inaugurated by Daughter Nicolle Verma
World-renowned business tycoon Dr. Abhishek Verma has supported Foodman Vishal Singh’s Hunger-Free World mission. In memory of his mother, Late Veena Verma, who was a 3 term Rajya Sabha MP.
Dr. Verma dedicated a state-of-the-art free permanent shelter for the attendants of patients at KGMU Medical University, Lucknow, under the aegis of Vijay Shree Foundation. His daughter, Nicolle Verma, inaugurated the shelter.
During the event, Foodman Vishal Singh honored Nicolle Verma by presenting her with a memento. Mrs. Nidhi Sharma and Avantika Yadav, associated with the organization, welcomed her with garlands. Following this, Nicolle Verma distributed essential items to the attendants and also handed out fruits. She became emotional remembering her grandmother on her birth anniversary.
On this occasion, she also inaugurated the “Veena Verma Sevalaya” in memory of her grandmother, Veena Verma, to serve the attendants. She expressed, “I feel proud that my family is engaged in nation-building as well as social service. Today, in collaboration with Vijay Shree Foundation founder Foodman Vishal Singh Ji, I feel immensely proud to dedicate this shelter for the poor, helpless, and needy attendants of patients battling serious illnesses like cancer. I am honored to be associated with the Hunger-Free World Mission for humanity.”
Inspired by the continuous humanitarian service provided by Vijay Shree Foundation over the past 17 years, Nicolle Verma donated 10 lakh rupees to support the cause. The purpose of this donation is to ensure that services continue for the needy attendants of patients suffering from severe illnesses in hospitals, as facilitated by Foodman Vishal Singh.
It is noteworthy that Dr. Abhishek Verma’s family has a legacy of public and philanthropic service. They are helping millions to carry forward the values and service work of their parents. On the occasion of his mother’s birth anniversary, Dr. Abhishek Verma dedicated this state-of-the-art permanent shelter at Lucknow Medical College to serve the attendants of patients through the Vijay Shree Foundation.
Supporting Foodman Vishal Singh’s Hunger-Free World mission, Dr. Abhishek Verma assured that he would continually support keeping this flame of humanity alive. He also promised to assist in providing medicines to the helpless patients.
Continuing her grandmother’s legacy of service, Nicolle Verma personally served food to the needy patients and attendants. She said, “It is our good fortune to have received the joy of doing this noble work today through Foodman Vishal Singh. I have taken another step forward in carrying my family’s values and cooperation by joining hands with the Vijay Shree Foundation. My father taught me to serve and help the needy, and I feel happy when I bring a smile to someone’s face.”
On the birth anniversary of the late Veena Verma, the event organizer, Vijay Shree Foundation founder Foodman Vishal Singh, said, “We feel proud and happy that Dr. Abhishek Verma, a globally renowned business tycoon, has extended his support to uplift our country from the hunger index. Today, on his mother’s birth anniversary, he inaugurated a state-of-the-art permanent shelter at Lucknow Medical College, which will always be helpful for the needy attendants of patients. It is a pleasure for me and the organization to receive the affection of Mr. Verma.”
The event was attended by General Manager Verma Family Office Hemant Garg, Sonu Rajput, and the organization’s volunteers, including Sandeep Singh, Parmeshwar Ji, Prashant Rao Gautam, Balram Singh, Ramesh Chaudhary, Suman, Jeetu, Anil, Suraj, Vinay, Manish Bhadauria, Manas Mehrotra, Vivek, Apurv, Happy, and others.
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